Modelling cancer risk: Regional and socioeconomic disparities

Video: Modelling cancer risk: Regional and socioeconomic disparities

ARC Webinar Series 2021 by Institute and Faculty of Actuaries  [1:04:31]

Institute and Faculty of Actuaries

Cancer incidence and mortality vary by region and socioeconomic status. Modelling the structure development and trends of cancer risk is important for insurance purposes and can impact pricing and reserving in related health insurance fields such as critical illness insurance and care provision.

In this work we investigate cancer rates over the period 2001-2018 to quantify differences among regions and deprivation groups in England, using data from the Office for National Statistics. Under a comprehensive Bayesian model, which accounts for uncertainties in the data, we provide a detailed assessment of regional and socioeconomic disparities in cancer morbidity and mortality risk. The analysis shows considerable inequalities in some of the most prevalent types of cancer, as well as all-cancer rates, with respect to socioeconomic status by region. It also reveals that the gap among deprivation groups with the highest and lowest cancer rates has widened over time for certain types of cancer. Our research has also found that delays in the average age of cancer diagnosis can result in a significant increase in cancer mortality, that also exhibits regional variation. This can be particularly relevant to diagnosis delays under the current Covid-19 pandemic.

The work discussed in this webinar is part of the Modelling, Measurement and Management of Longevity and Morbidity Risk programme.

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